TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2024-11253
MEDIUM RISK

CVE-2024-11253

A post-authentication command injection vulnerability in the "DNSServer” parameter of the diagnostic function in the Zyxel VMG8825-T50K firmware version V5.50(ABOM.8.5)C0 and earlier could allow an authenticated attacker with administrator privileges to execute operating system (…

SMB Attack Probability Score
27/100medium
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
7.2
EPSS (30d)
0.32%
SMB Exposure
54.8/100
Attack Vector
NETWORK
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
HIGH
🔓
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Firewall or VPN compromise gives attackers full internal network access — no further credentials needed. All connected systems are immediately at risk.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Automated scanner identifies the exposed appliance. Within hours, lateral movement begins: file servers, domain controller, and backup systems are reached.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
3–7 days
Business cost range
€15K–€80K
4
What IT should check this week
Is this appliance directly internet-facing?
Is firmware/OS version patched to latest?
Are admin consoles accessible without MFA?
Is network segmentation between IT and OT/servers active?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 3 events
◈ 1 predicted
📋
11 Mar 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 7.2 (HIGH)
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 0.3% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 27/100
Forecast →
✅
29 Jun 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
vmg4005-b50a firmwareemg5723-t50kdm4200-b0emg5723-t50k firmwarevmg4005-b50avmg3927-t50k firmwaredm4200-b0 firmwarevmg8825-t50k firmwarevmg8825-t50kvmg4005-b60a firmwarevmg4005-b60avmg3927-t50k
Remediation & References
What to do
🔥Apply firewall firmware update via vendor PSIRT advisoryhigh

Firewall vulnerabilities are high-value targets — they sit at the network perimeter. Download the patched firmware from the vendor's official PSIRT page. Schedule an off-hours maintenance window to avoid business disruption during the update.

⚙️Disable management interface access from the internetmedium

The firewall management portal (web UI, SSH, API) should never be exposed directly to the internet. Restrict management access to internal IPs or a dedicated management VLAN only.

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.