TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2024-12010
MEDIUM RISK

CVE-2024-12010

A post-authentication command injection vulnerability in the ”zyUtilMailSend” function of the Zyxel AX7501-B1 firmware version V5.17(ABPC.5.3)C0 and earlier could allow an authenticated attacker with administrator privileges to execute operating system (OS) commands on a vulnerab…

SMB Attack Probability Score
27/100medium
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
7.2
EPSS (30d)
0.32%
SMB Exposure
54.8/100
Attack Vector
NETWORK
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
HIGH
🔓
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Firewall or VPN compromise gives attackers full internal network access — no further credentials needed. All connected systems are immediately at risk.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Automated scanner identifies the exposed appliance. Within hours, lateral movement begins: file servers, domain controller, and backup systems are reached.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
3–7 days
Business cost range
€15K–€80K
4
What IT should check this week
Is this appliance directly internet-facing?
Is firmware/OS version patched to latest?
Are admin consoles accessible without MFA?
Is network segmentation between IT and OT/servers active?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 3 events
◈ 1 predicted
📋
11 Mar 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 7.2 (HIGH)
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 0.3% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 27/100
Forecast →
✅
29 Jun 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
wx5610-b0ex5401-b1ex3510-b1emg5523-t50bvmg3927-t50k firmwarevmg8623-t50bemg3525-t50b firmwarevmg8825-t50k firmwarewx3401-b0 firmwarewx3401-b1vmg8623-t50b firmwaredx5401-b0px5301-t0 firmwareex3301-t0 firmwareex3500-t0ex5601-t0 firmwareax7501-b1ex5510-b0 firmwarevmg3625-t50b firmwareex3301-t0ex3600-t0ex3501-t0emg5523-t50b firmwaredx4510-b1 firmware
Remediation & References
What to do
🔥Apply firewall firmware update via vendor PSIRT advisoryhigh

Firewall vulnerabilities are high-value targets — they sit at the network perimeter. Download the patched firmware from the vendor's official PSIRT page. Schedule an off-hours maintenance window to avoid business disruption during the update.

⚙️Disable management interface access from the internetmedium

The firewall management portal (web UI, SSH, API) should never be exposed directly to the internet. Restrict management access to internal IPs or a dedicated management VLAN only.

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.