TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2024-21760
MEDIUM RISK

CVE-2024-21760

An improper control of generation of code ('Code Injection') vulnerability [CWE-94] in FortiSOAR Connector FortiSOAR 7.4 all versions, 7.3 all versions, 7.2 all versions, 7.0 all versions, 6.4 all versions may allow an authenticated attacker to execute arbitrary code on the host …

SMB Attack Probability Score
24/100medium
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
8.4
EPSS (30d)
0.23%
SMB Exposure
46/100
Attack Vector
NETWORK
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
HIGH
🔓
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Firewall or VPN compromise gives attackers full internal network access — no further credentials needed. All connected systems are immediately at risk.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Automated scanner identifies the exposed appliance. Within hours, lateral movement begins: file servers, domain controller, and backup systems are reached.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
3–7 days
Business cost range
€15K–€80K
4
What IT should check this week
Is this appliance directly internet-facing?
Is firmware/OS version patched to latest?
Are admin consoles accessible without MFA?
Is network segmentation between IT and OT/servers active?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 3 events
◈ 1 predicted
📋
18 Mar 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 8.4 (HIGH)
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 0.2% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 24/100
Forecast →
✅
28 Dec 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
fortisoar
Remediation & References
What to do
🎣Raise user awareness — this can be triggered via phishingmedium

Exploitation requires user interaction (e.g., opening a file, clicking a link). While patching is the definitive fix, remind users not to open unexpected attachments or links. This type of vulnerability is commonly chained with phishing campaigns targeting SMBs.

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.