TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2024-53286
MEDIUM RISK

CVE-2024-53286

Improper neutralization of special elements used in an OS command ('OS Command Injection') vulnerability in DDNS Record functionality in Synology Router Manager (SRM) before 1.3.1-9346-11 allows remote authenticated users with administrator privileges to execute arbitrary code vi…

SMB Attack Probability Score
24/100medium
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
7.2
EPSS (30d)
0.40%
SMB Exposure
34.4/100
Attack Vector
NETWORK
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
HIGH
💾
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Backup software vulnerability is the most dangerous category for SMBs — attackers deliberately target backups first to make recovery impossible.

2
Typical real-world scenario

After encrypting production systems, attacker reaches backup server through same credentials. All restore points are encrypted or deleted. Recovery requires paying ransom.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
7–21 days
Business cost range
€40K–€200K
4
What IT should check this week
Are backup credentials separate from domain credentials?
Are backups stored offline or in an immutable location?
Has a restore test been performed in the last 90 days?
Is backup software internet-accessible for management?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 3 events
◈ 1 predicted
📋
23 Jul 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 7.2 (HIGH)
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 0.4% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 24/100
Forecast →
✅
29 Jun 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
router manager
Remediation & References
What to do
💾Update backup software and verify offline backup integritycritical

Ransomware groups specifically target backup systems to prevent recovery. Update immediately, then verify that at least one backup copy is offline or immutable (cloud with object lock, or air-gapped media). If your only backup is on a NAS exposed to the network, you have no ransomware recovery option.

🔒Disable NAS remote access if not business-criticalhigh

NAS devices with internet-facing QuickConnect, DDNS, or direct port-forwarding are frequent ransomware targets. If remote access to the NAS is not essential, disable it. Use VPN to access NAS remotely instead.

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.