TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2025-20141
LOW RISK

CVE-2025-20141

A vulnerability in the handling of specific packets that are punted from a line card to a route processor in Cisco IOS XR Software Release 7.9.2 could allow an unauthenticated, adjacent attacker to cause control plane traffic to stop working on multiple Cisco IOS XR platforms.&nb…

SMB Attack Probability Score
11/100low
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
7.4
EPSS (30d)
0.07%
SMB Exposure
42.5/100
Attack Vector
ADJACENT_NETWOR
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
NONE
🔓
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Firewall or VPN compromise gives attackers full internal network access — no further credentials needed. All connected systems are immediately at risk.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Automated scanner identifies the exposed appliance. Within hours, lateral movement begins: file servers, domain controller, and backup systems are reached.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
3–7 days
Business cost range
€15K–€80K
4
What IT should check this week
Is this appliance directly internet-facing?
Is firmware/OS version patched to latest?
Are admin consoles accessible without MFA?
Is network segmentation between IT and OT/servers active?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 3 events
◈ 1 predicted
📋
12 Mar 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 7.4 (HIGH)
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 0.1% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 11/100
Forecast →
✅
29 Jun 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
ncs 5502-sencs 57b1-5dse-sysncs 540x-4z14g2q-ancs 540x-6z18g-sys-dncs 55a1-36h-sencs 540x-8z16g-sys-dncs 5508ncs 540x-6z18g-sys-ancs 540x-16z8q2c-dncs 57b1-6d24-sysncs 540-acc-sysncs 55a1-24q6h-sncs 540-6z18g-sys-ancs 540x-12z16g-sys-ancs 540-24z8q2c-sysncs 55a2-mod-hd-sncs 540-12z20g-sys-dncs 540x-16z4g8q2c-dncs 540-28z4c-sys-ancs 55a2-mod-sncs 540-24q8l2dd-sysncs 55a1-48q6hncs 57c3-mod-sysncs 57d2-18dd-sys
Remediation & References
What to do
📋Apply vendor patch as part of regular maintenancelow

No specific emergency mitigations required. Apply the available patch during your next scheduled maintenance window and verify the update was applied successfully.

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.