TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2025-24076
MEDIUM RISK

CVE-2025-24076

Improper access control in Windows Cross Device Service allows an authorized attacker to elevate privileges locally.

SMB Attack Probability Score
32/100medium
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
7.3
EPSS (30d)
1.61%
SMB Exposure
85.5/100
Attack Vector
LOCAL
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
LOW
💻
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Operating system vulnerability enables privilege escalation or remote code execution — giving attackers full control over affected machines within the network.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Initial foothold (phishing or exposed service) triggers OS exploit. Domain admin privileges are obtained. Ransomware is deployed network-wide overnight.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
5–14 days
Business cost range
€20K–€150K
4
What IT should check this week
Are all Windows/macOS systems updated within the last 30 days?
Is Windows Defender or equivalent AV active and updated?
Are local admin rights restricted to only necessary users?
Are domain admin accounts used only for admin tasks?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 3 events
1 predicted
📋
11 Mar 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 7.3 (HIGH)
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 1.6% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 32/100
Forecast →
29 Jun 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
windows 11 24h2windows 11 22h2windows 11 23h2windows server 2025windows server 2022 23h2
Remediation & References
What to do
👤Review local administrator privilegesmedium

This vulnerability enables privilege escalation from a standard user to admin/SYSTEM. Ensure users do not have local administrator rights on endpoints. Apply the principle of least privilege — standard users should not be local admins.

🎣Raise user awareness — this can be triggered via phishingmedium

Exploitation requires user interaction (e.g., opening a file, clicking a link). While patching is the definitive fix, remind users not to open unexpected attachments or links. This type of vulnerability is commonly chained with phishing campaigns targeting SMBs.

💻Local access required — review endpoint hardeninglow

An attacker needs local access to exploit this. Focus on endpoint detection, privilege management, and preventing initial compromise (phishing, malicious USB).

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.