TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2025-24813
⚡ CISA KEV — Actively ExploitedCRITICAL RISK

CVE-2025-24813

Path Equivalence: 'file.Name' (Internal Dot) leading to Remote Code Execution and/or Information disclosure and/or malicious content added to uploaded files via write enabled Default Servlet in Apache Tomcat. This issue affects Apache Tomcat: from 11.0.0-M1 through 11.0.2, from …

SMB Attack Probability Score
86/100critical
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
9.8
EPSS (30d)
94.23%
SMB Exposure
40/100
Attack Vector
NETWORK
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
NONE
💻
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Operating system vulnerability enables privilege escalation or remote code execution — giving attackers full control over affected machines within the network.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Initial foothold (phishing or exposed service) triggers OS exploit. Domain admin privileges are obtained. Ransomware is deployed network-wide overnight.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
5–14 days
Business cost range
€20K–€150K
4
What IT should check this week
Are all Windows/macOS systems updated within the last 30 days?
Is Windows Defender or equivalent AV active and updated?
Are local admin rights restricted to only necessary users?
Are domain admin accounts used only for admin tasks?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 7 events
◈ 2 predicted
📋
10 Mar 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 9.8 (CRITICAL)
⚡
12 Mar 2025
Exploit in the wild
Active exploitation observed — automated scanning and targeted attacks underway
🔬
13 Mar 2025
Proof-of-Concept published
Public PoC code available — exploitation now accessible to non-expert attackers
🚨
1 Apr 2025CISA KEV
Added to CISA KEV catalog
CISA confirms active exploitation. Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 94.2% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 86/100
Forecast →
🌐
7 May 2026◈ predicted · in 7 days
Predicted: mass exploitation window
Based on EPSS 94% and current exploit maturity — automated scanning campaigns expected at scale.
⚠️
14 May 2026◈ predicted · in 14 days
Predicted: ransomware adoption risk
High EPSS and SMB exposure profile suggest this CVE may be incorporated into ransomware campaigns within 14 days.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
bootstrap oshci compute nodetomcatdebian linux
Remediation & References
⚡ CISA Required Action

Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.

Federal agency patch deadline: 2025-04-22
What to do
🚨Patch immediately — actively exploited in the wildcritical

CISA has confirmed exploitation of this vulnerability. Federal agencies must patch within the KEV deadline. SMBs should treat this as P0: patch or mitigate within 24–48 hours.

🌐No authentication required — restrict external access nowhigh

This vulnerability can be exploited remotely without credentials or user interaction. Until patched: block access to the affected service from the internet using firewall rules or ACLs. Only allow access from trusted IPs.

📊High exploitation probability — EPSS 94.2%high

EPSS (Exploit Prediction Scoring System) estimates a 94.2% probability this vulnerability will be exploited in the next 30 days. This places it in the top top 10% of all CVEs by exploitation likelihood.

🖥Update web server to the latest stable releasemedium

Apply the patched version from the vendor's official release channel. For Apache: check httpd.apache.org/security. For Nginx: check nginx.org/en/security_advisories.html. After updating, verify the server config for any deprecated directives.

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listCISA KEV Entry ↗CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.