TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2025-24984
⚡ CISA KEV — Actively ExploitedCRITICAL RISK

CVE-2025-24984

Insertion of sensitive information into log file in Windows NTFS allows an unauthorized attacker to disclose information with a physical attack.

SMB Attack Probability Score
70/100critical
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
4.6
EPSS (30d)
4.97%
SMB Exposure
85.5/100
Attack Vector
PHYSICAL
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
NONE
💻
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Operating system vulnerability enables privilege escalation or remote code execution — giving attackers full control over affected machines within the network.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Initial foothold (phishing or exposed service) triggers OS exploit. Domain admin privileges are obtained. Ransomware is deployed network-wide overnight.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
5–14 days
Business cost range
€20K–€150K
4
What IT should check this week
Are all Windows/macOS systems updated within the last 30 days?
Is Windows Defender or equivalent AV active and updated?
Are local admin rights restricted to only necessary users?
Are domain admin accounts used only for admin tasks?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 6 events
◈ 1 predicted
📋
11 Mar 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 4.6 (MEDIUM)
🚨
11 Mar 2025CISA KEV
Added to CISA KEV catalog
CISA confirms active exploitation. Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.
⚡
13 Mar 2025
Exploit in the wild
Active exploitation observed — automated scanning and targeted attacks underway
🔬
25 Mar 2025
Proof-of-Concept published
Public PoC code available — exploitation now accessible to non-expert attackers
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 5.0% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 70/100
Forecast →
✅
29 Jun 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
windows 11 24h2windows server 2022windows server 2022 23h2windows 11 22h2windows 10 22h2windows 10 1507windows server 2012windows server 2019windows 10 1607windows 11 23h2windows server 2016windows server 2025windows 10 1809windows 10 21h2
Remediation & References
⚡ CISA Required Action

Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.

Federal agency patch deadline: 2025-04-01
What to do
🚨Patch immediately — actively exploited in the wildcritical

CISA has confirmed exploitation of this vulnerability. Federal agencies must patch within the KEV deadline. SMBs should treat this as P0: patch or mitigate within 24–48 hours.

🪟Deploy Microsoft patch via Windows Update or WSUShigh

Apply the patch from this month's Microsoft Patch Tuesday via Windows Update. For managed environments, push via WSUS or Microsoft Endpoint Manager. Prioritise servers and domain controllers over workstations.

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listCISA KEV Entry ↗CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.