TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2025-27018
MEDIUM RISK

CVE-2025-27018

Improper Neutralization of Special Elements used in an SQL Command ('SQL Injection') vulnerability in Apache Airflow MySQL Provider. When user triggered a DAG with dump_sql or load_sql functions they could pass a table parameter from a UI, that could cause SQL injection by runni…

SMB Attack Probability Score
24/100medium
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
6.3
EPSS (30d)
0.33%
SMB Exposure
40/100
Attack Vector
NETWORK
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
LOW
🗄
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Database vulnerability exposes all customer and business data to exfiltration — triggering GDPR obligations, client notification requirements, and regulatory fines.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Database is dumped silently over days. Data appears on dark web markets or is used for targeted phishing. Regulatory investigation follows.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
2–6 days
Business cost range
€15K–€120K
4
What IT should check this week
Is the database accessible from the internet (even indirectly)?
Are database credentials stored in plain text anywhere?
Is access to DB limited to application accounts only?
Are database query logs retained and monitored?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 3 events
◈ 1 predicted
📋
19 Mar 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 6.3 (MEDIUM)
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 0.3% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 24/100
Forecast →
✅
29 Jun 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
apache-airflow-providers-mysql
Remediation & References
What to do
🖥Update web server to the latest stable releasemedium

Apply the patched version from the vendor's official release channel. For Apache: check httpd.apache.org/security. For Nginx: check nginx.org/en/security_advisories.html. After updating, verify the server config for any deprecated directives.

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.