TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2025-64446
⚡ CISA KEV — Actively ExploitedCRITICAL RISK

CVE-2025-64446

A relative path traversal vulnerability in Fortinet FortiWeb 8.0.0 through 8.0.1, FortiWeb 7.6.0 through 7.6.4, FortiWeb 7.4.0 through 7.4.9, FortiWeb 7.2.0 through 7.2.11, FortiWeb 7.0.0 through 7.0.11 may allow an attacker to execute administrative commands on the system via cr…

SMB Attack Probability Score
87/100critical
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
9.8
EPSS (30d)
89.01%
SMB Exposure
46/100
Attack Vector
NETWORK
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
NONE
🔓
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Firewall or VPN compromise gives attackers full internal network access — no further credentials needed. All connected systems are immediately at risk.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Automated scanner identifies the exposed appliance. Within hours, lateral movement begins: file servers, domain controller, and backup systems are reached.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
3–7 days
Business cost range
€15K–€80K
4
What IT should check this week
Is this appliance directly internet-facing?
Is firmware/OS version patched to latest?
Are admin consoles accessible without MFA?
Is network segmentation between IT and OT/servers active?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 7 events
◈ 2 predicted
📋
14 Nov 2025
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 9.8 (CRITICAL)
🚨
14 Nov 2025CISA KEV
Added to CISA KEV catalog
CISA confirms active exploitation. Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.
⚡
16 Nov 2025
Exploit in the wild
Active exploitation observed — automated scanning and targeted attacks underway
🔬
17 Nov 2025
Proof-of-Concept published
Public PoC code available — exploitation now accessible to non-expert attackers
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 89.0% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 87/100
Forecast →
🌐
7 May 2026◈ predicted · in 7 days
Predicted: mass exploitation window
Based on EPSS 89% and current exploit maturity — automated scanning campaigns expected at scale.
⚠️
14 May 2026◈ predicted · in 14 days
Predicted: ransomware adoption risk
High EPSS and SMB exposure profile suggest this CVE may be incorporated into ransomware campaigns within 14 days.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
fortiweb
Remediation & References
⚡ CISA Required Action

Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.

Federal agency patch deadline: 2025-11-21
What to do
🚨Patch immediately — actively exploited in the wildcritical

CISA has confirmed exploitation of this vulnerability. Federal agencies must patch within the KEV deadline. SMBs should treat this as P0: patch or mitigate within 24–48 hours.

🌐No authentication required — restrict external access nowhigh

This vulnerability can be exploited remotely without credentials or user interaction. Until patched: block access to the affected service from the internet using firewall rules or ACLs. Only allow access from trusted IPs.

📊High exploitation probability — EPSS 89.0%high

EPSS (Exploit Prediction Scoring System) estimates a 89.0% probability this vulnerability will be exploited in the next 30 days. This places it in the top top 25% of all CVEs by exploitation likelihood.

NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listCISA KEV Entry ↗CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.