TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2026-20700
⚡ CISA KEV — Actively Exploited🔒 Ransomware-LinkedHIGH RISK

CVE-2026-20700

A memory corruption issue was addressed with improved state management. This issue is fixed in watchOS 26.3, tvOS 26.3, macOS Tahoe 26.3, visionOS 26.3, iOS 26.3 and iPadOS 26.3. An attacker with memory write capability may be able to execute arbitrary code. Apple is aware of a r…

SMB Attack Probability Score
52/100high
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
7.8
EPSS (30d)
0.42%
SMB Exposure
5/100
Attack Vector
LOCAL
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
LOW
💻
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Operating system vulnerability enables privilege escalation or remote code execution — giving attackers full control over affected machines within the network.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Initial foothold (phishing or exposed service) triggers OS exploit. Domain admin privileges are obtained. Ransomware is deployed network-wide overnight.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
5–14 days
Business cost range
€20K–€150K
4
What IT should check this week
Are all Windows/macOS systems updated within the last 30 days?
Is Windows Defender or equivalent AV active and updated?
Are local admin rights restricted to only necessary users?
Are domain admin accounts used only for admin tasks?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 7 events
◈ 1 predicted
📋
11 Feb 2026
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 7.8 (HIGH)
🚨
12 Feb 2026CISA KEV
Added to CISA KEV catalog
CISA confirms active exploitation. Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.
⚡
13 Feb 2026
Exploit in the wild
Active exploitation observed — automated scanning and targeted attacks underway
🔒
15 Feb 2026Ransomware
Ransomware campaigns active
Groups using this vector: Conti. SMB targets observed.
🔬
25 Feb 2026
Proof-of-Concept published
Public PoC code available — exploitation now accessible to non-expert attackers
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 0.4% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 52/100
Forecast →
✅
29 Jun 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
watchosipadosvisionosmacosiphone ostvos
Remediation & References
⚡ CISA Required Action

Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.

Federal agency patch deadline: 2026-03-05
What to do
🚨Patch immediately — actively exploited in the wildcritical

CISA has confirmed exploitation of this vulnerability. Federal agencies must patch within the KEV deadline. SMBs should treat this as P0: patch or mitigate within 24–48 hours.

💻Local access required — review endpoint hardeninglow

An attacker needs local access to exploit this. Focus on endpoint detection, privilege management, and preventing initial compromise (phishing, malicious USB).

Official Patch & Advisory Sources
NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listCISA KEV Entry ↗CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.