TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2026-21514
โšก CISA KEV โ€” Actively Exploited๐Ÿ”’ Ransomware-LinkedCRITICAL RISK

CVE-2026-21514

Reliance on untrusted inputs in a security decision in Microsoft Office Word allows an unauthorized attacker to bypass a security feature locally.

SMB Attack Probability Score
80/100critical
Weighted: EPSS ยท CISA KEV ยท SMB stack prevalence ยท exploit maturity ยท CVSS vector
CVSS v3
7.8
EPSS (30d)
5.14%
SMB Exposure
85.5/100
Attack Vector
LOCAL
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
NONE
๐Ÿ“„
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Office productivity vulnerabilities (Word, Excel, Acrobat) are primary vectors for phishing-delivered malware โ€” one opened file can compromise the entire company.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Malicious document arrives via email. Macro or exploit executes silently. Attacker gains persistent access to the employee's machine and credentials.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
1โ€“3 days
Business cost range
โ‚ฌ5Kโ€“โ‚ฌ30K
4
What IT should check this week
Are macros disabled by default in Office applications?
Is Adobe Acrobat/Reader updated to latest version?
Are employees trained to verify unexpected documents?
Is email attachment scanning active on mail gateway?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation โ€” 7 events
โ—ˆ 1 predicted
๐Ÿ“‹
10 Feb 2026
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 7.8 (HIGH)
๐Ÿšจ
10 Feb 2026CISA KEV
Added to CISA KEV catalog
CISA confirms active exploitation. Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.
โšก
12 Feb 2026
Exploit in the wild
Active exploitation observed โ€” automated scanning and targeted attacks underway
๐Ÿ”’
13 Feb 2026Ransomware
Ransomware campaigns active
Groups using this vector: Conti. SMB targets observed.
๐Ÿ”ฌ
24 Feb 2026
Proof-of-Concept published
Public PoC code available โ€” exploitation now accessible to non-expert attackers
๐Ÿ“
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 5.1% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 80/100
Forecast โ†’
โœ…
29 Jun 2026โ—ˆ predicted ยท in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
โ—ˆ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
office long term servicing channel365 apps
Remediation & References
โšก CISA Required Action

Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.

Federal agency patch deadline: 2026-03-03
What to do
๐ŸšจPatch immediately โ€” actively exploited in the wildcritical

CISA has confirmed exploitation of this vulnerability. Federal agencies must patch within the KEV deadline. SMBs should treat this as P0: patch or mitigate within 24โ€“48 hours.

๐ŸŽฃRaise user awareness โ€” this can be triggered via phishingmedium

Exploitation requires user interaction (e.g., opening a file, clicking a link). While patching is the definitive fix, remind users not to open unexpected attachments or links. This type of vulnerability is commonly chained with phishing campaigns targeting SMBs.

๐Ÿ’ปLocal access required โ€” review endpoint hardeninglow

An attacker needs local access to exploit this. Focus on endpoint detection, privilege management, and preventing initial compromise (phishing, malicious USB).

Official Patch & Advisory Sources
NVD Full Entry โ†—Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listCISA KEV Entry โ†—CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogEPSS Score โ†—Exploit Prediction Scoring System โ€” FIRST.orgMitre CVE โ†—MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.

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