TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2026-22769
⚡ CISA KEV — Actively Exploited🔒 Ransomware-LinkedCRITICAL RISK

CVE-2026-22769

Dell RecoverPoint for Virtual Machines, versions prior to 6.0.3.1 HF1, contain a hardcoded credential vulnerability. This is considered critical as an unauthenticated remote attacker with knowledge of the hardcoded credential could potentially exploit this vulnerability leading t…

SMB Attack Probability Score
84/100critical
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
10
EPSS (30d)
34.16%
SMB Exposure
5/100
Attack Vector
NETWORK
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
NONE
📊
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

ERP vulnerability halts all business operations — invoicing, procurement, inventory, and payroll become inaccessible or corrupted.

2
Typical real-world scenario

ERP system is compromised through unpatched vulnerability. Financial records are exfiltrated or manipulated. System is locked pending ransom payment.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
3–10 days
Business cost range
€20K–€120K
4
What IT should check this week
Is the ERP system accessible from outside the office network?
Are ERP admin credentials unique and rotated regularly?
Is ERP data included in backup and restore procedures?
Are ERP vendor security patches applied within 30 days?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 7 events
◈ 1 predicted
📋
17 Feb 2026
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 10 (CRITICAL)
🚨
18 Feb 2026CISA KEV
Added to CISA KEV catalog
CISA confirms active exploitation. Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.
⚡
19 Feb 2026
Exploit in the wild
Active exploitation observed — automated scanning and targeted attacks underway
🔒
21 Feb 2026Ransomware
Ransomware campaigns active
Groups using this vector: Conti. SMB targets observed.
🔬
24 Feb 2026
Proof-of-Concept published
Public PoC code available — exploitation now accessible to non-expert attackers
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 34.2% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 84/100
Forecast →
🌐
30 May 2026◈ predicted · in 30 days
Predicted: mass exploitation window
Based on EPSS 34% and current exploit maturity — automated scanning campaigns expected at scale.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
recoverpoint for virtual machines
Remediation & References
⚡ CISA Required Action

Apply mitigations per vendor instructions, follow applicable BOD 22-01 guidance for cloud services, or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.

Federal agency patch deadline: 2026-02-21
What to do
🚨Patch immediately — actively exploited in the wildcritical

CISA has confirmed exploitation of this vulnerability. Federal agencies must patch within the KEV deadline. SMBs should treat this as P0: patch or mitigate within 24–48 hours.

🌐No authentication required — restrict external access nowhigh

This vulnerability can be exploited remotely without credentials or user interaction. Until patched: block access to the affected service from the internet using firewall rules or ACLs. Only allow access from trusted IPs.

Official Patch & Advisory Sources
NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listCISA KEV Entry ↗CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.