TIRESIS/Forecast/CVE-2026-78515
MEDIUM RISK

CVE-2026-78515

Out-of-bounds read in Microsoft Office Excel allows an unauthorized attacker to disclose information over a network.

SMB Attack Probability Score
39/100medium
Weighted: EPSS · CISA KEV · SMB stack prevalence · exploit maturity · CVSS vector
CVSS v3
6.5
EPSS (30d)
0.94%
SMB Exposure
85.5/100
Attack Vector
NETWORK
Complexity
LOW
Privileges
NONE
📄
SMB Impact
How this vulnerability affects a real small business
1
How this breaks an SMB

Office productivity vulnerabilities (Word, Excel, Acrobat) are primary vectors for phishing-delivered malware — one opened file can compromise the entire company.

2
Typical real-world scenario

Malicious document arrives via email. Macro or exploit executes silently. Attacker gains persistent access to the employee's machine and credentials.

3
Estimated downtime & cost
Est. downtime
1–3 days
Business cost range
€5K–€30K
4
What IT should check this week
Are macros disabled by default in Office applications?
Is Adobe Acrobat/Reader updated to latest version?
Are employees trained to verify unexpected documents?
Is email attachment scanning active on mail gateway?
Scenarios are generated based on software category and CVE characteristics. Cost ranges reflect SMB incidents in TIRESIS incident database.
Threat Evolution Timeline
From disclosure to predicted exploitation — 3 events
1 predicted
📋
8 Sept 2026
Vulnerability disclosed
CVE published by NVD with CVSS 6.5 (MEDIUM)
📍
TODAY
Today
EPSS: 0.9% probability of exploitation in next 30 days. SMB Risk Score: 39/100
Forecast →
12 Nov 2026◈ predicted · in 60 days
Predicted: widespread patch adoption
Low EPSS suggests limited active exploitation. Most organizations expected to patch in routine maintenance cycle.
◈ Predicted eventsare estimates based on EPSS score, exploit maturity, and historical CVE progression patterns. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Products
office 2016office 2024microsoft 365365 appsoffice 2019office 2021
Remediation & References
What to do
🪟Deploy Microsoft patch via Windows Update or WSUShigh

Apply the patch from this month's Microsoft Patch Tuesday via Windows Update. For managed environments, push via WSUS or Microsoft Endpoint Manager. Prioritise servers and domain controllers over workstations.

🌐Network-accessible service — review firewall exposuremedium

The affected service is reachable over the network. Verify that it is not exposed to the internet unnecessarily. Apply network segmentation to limit blast radius if exploited.

🎣Raise user awareness — this can be triggered via phishingmedium

Exploitation requires user interaction (e.g., opening a file, clicking a link). While patching is the definitive fix, remind users not to open unexpected attachments or links. This type of vulnerability is commonly chained with phishing campaigns targeting SMBs.

Official Patch & Advisory Sources
NVD Full Entry ↗Official vulnerability detail, CVSS vectors, CPE listEPSS Score ↗Exploit Prediction Scoring System — FIRST.orgMitre CVE ↗MITRE CVE Program official entry
Vendor & Exploit References
Scoring Methodology

SMB Attack Probability Score weights: EPSS exploit likelihood (35%), CISA KEV active exploitation (25%), SMB stack prevalence (20%), exploit maturity (10%), CVSS network vector complexity (10%). Impact scenarios are derived from software category and historical SMB incident patterns. Scores recompute daily.

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